TOP FACTS
FOOD & ECONOMICS
Here is a list of what we consider the most credible figures and statistics to use based on the entire body of evidence in our database. This list will be updated over time as new evidence emerges.
Think we should update this or do you have a different interpretation than us? Please contact us directly, we're always open to discussing the evidence:
FOOD SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION
The total hidden costs of the burdens current food systems place on people and the planet are estimated at $15 trillion annually, equivalent to 12% of global GDP in 2020:
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Health costs - $11 trillion/year
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Environmental costs - $3 trillion/year
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Structural poverty - $1 trillion/year
Meanwhile, the net benefits of transforming the food system - through reducing hidden costs and shifting diets in high-income areas towards diets more in line with EAT-lancet guidelines - are worth $5-10 trillion USD a year, equivalent to between 4 and 8% of global GDP in 2020 (Laderchi et al. 2024).
A dietary shift away from animal-sourced foods could save $7.3 trillion worth of production-related health burden and ecosystem degradation while cutting carbon emissions (Lucas et al., 2023).
EXTERNALITIES
Global external health costs (unhealthy diet, obesity, undernutrition, antimicrobial resistance, zoonoses) and environmental costs (emissions, soil depletion, water use and air, water and soil pollution) of food systems may be ~two times larger than food valued at market prices: ~$20 trillion of externalities versus $9 trillion of food value in the markets (Braun & Hendrichs, 2023).
Globally, approximately US$2 of production-related external costs were embedded in every dollar of food expenditure in 2018 - corresponding to US$14 trillion of externalities (Lucas et al., 2023)
Since 2009, the direct cost of zoonotic diseases has been estimated at more than $20 billion and indirect losses at over $200 billion (Barratt et al. 2019)
The estimated economic losses due to illegal logging, fishing, and wildlife trade are $1 trillion–$2 trillion per year—with more than 90% of these losses from ecosystem services that are not currently priced by the market (World Bank 2019).
MARKET SIZE
(Note: market size estimates can vary substantially, depending on how they’re calculated)
Agriculture
The global agriculture market grew to ~$13.4 trillion in 2023 and expected to grow annually at 9.1% to $19 trillion in 2027. This market includes more than food products (e.g. by-products like leather and other products like tobacco and services like forestry & logging)
(Reportlinker's Agricultural Products Market Outlook 2022-26)
Food supply has become incredibly unresilient and concentrated:
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Just four plants - wheat, maize, rice & soybean - account for ~60% of calories grown by farmers (D’Odorico et al., 2018)
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Four countries sell 76% of the world’s corn (US, Argentina, Brazil & France)
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Five countries sell 77% of the rice (Thailand, Vietnam, India, US & Pakistan)
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Five countries supply 65% of the wheat (US, France, Canada, Russia & Australia). (D’amour & Anderson, 2020)
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Three countries grow 86% of the world’s soybeans, which accounts for ¾ of world’s animal feed (Walton, 2019)
Food & Beverage
The global food and beverage market was valued at approximately $6.4 trillion in 2022 and projected at $8.9 trillion by 2026. By major category (note: the segments don’t add up to the total since there is overlap that leads to double counting):
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Beverages:
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Alcoholic - $1.6 trillion
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Non-alcoholic - $970 billion
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Fruits & vegetables: $1.6 trillion
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Grains - $900 billion
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Processed foods: $4 trillion
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Dairy products - $570 billion
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Meat (including poultry & seafood): $1.3 trillion
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Plant-based alternatives (alt-meat, dairy & seafoods): $44.2 billion
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Baked goods: $487 billion
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Confectionery (e.g. sweets, candies, chocolates): $227 billion
(The Business Research Company, 2024)
Farmed Animals
The global market value of farmed animals (meat, dairy, eggs, aquaculture) varies significantly based on which part of the supply chain you measure, but estimates suggest it ranges from $1.6 trillion to $3.3 trillion USD. Livestock markets (meat, dairy, and eggs) are very large, but the animal feed industry and other associated industries (like leather and wool) are also significant contributors.
The global animal feed market - which includes feed for livestock (cattle, poultry, swine), aquaculture, and pet food industries - was estimated at $500 billion USD in 2023 and forecasted to grow to $ 617.3 billion by 2030 (CAGR 3-4%), with growth driven by increased livestock production to meet global demand for meat, dairy, and seafood; Growing aquaculture industries; and advances in feed additives for animal health and nutrition. Poultry and swine feed tend to dominate the market. (Cognitive Market Research, 2024)
The global beef’s market size was estimated at $446.3 billion USD in 2023 and expected to reach $645.6 billion by 2033 (CAGR 4.5%) The beef market is expected to grow, driven by increasing demand in emerging markets, though there is also pressure from plant-based alternatives in some regions. (Customer Market Insights, 2024)
The global chicken’s market size was estimated at $151.9 billion USD in 2023 and expected to reach $253 billion by 2032 (CAGR 5.84%). Chicken is the most consumed meat globally, and demand is expected to continue rising, especially as it is seen as a more affordable protein source in lower and middle-income regions. (Research and Markets, 2024)
The global pork market size was estimated at $250.2 billion in 2023 and expected to reach $352 billion by 2032 (CAGR 3.9%). Pork is one of the most widely consumed meats, especially in Asia, but its growth rate is slightly slower compared to poultry due to dietary shifts and competition from other protein sources. (Research and Markets, 2024)
The global seafood market size for 2023 was estimated at ~$163 billion USD, and could reach $210 billion USD by 2030 (CAGR 3-4%), depending on factors like aquaculture growth, sustainable fishing practices, and consumer demand for healthier proteins. The growth is largely driven by increasing demand for fish and shellfish (particularly in Asia), expanding aquaculture practices and growing consumer interest in seafood as an alternative to red meat. Source?
The global insect-based protein market was valued at around $3.3-4 billion USD in 2023 and expected to reach over $10 billion USD by 2027 (CAGR 25-27%), making it one of the fastest-growing protein sectors.
Wild Animals
The total global wild animal market size could be valued at anywhere between $400-600 billion USD:
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Wild-caught seafood market was estimated at $100-150 billion (FAO, 2022).
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Legal wildlife trade market (e.g. hunting, fur, exotic pets) is estimated to be worth around $300-400 billion USD annually (UNEP, 2020)
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Illegal wildlife trade market (includes illegal poaching and trafficking of animals and illegal trade in exotic pets) is estimated to generate between $7-23 billion USD per year, making it one of the most lucrative illicit markets in the world (Interpol 2020)
Plant-Based
The global plant-based food market was valued at $43.8 billion USD in 2023, projected to reach $85 billion USD by 2030 (CAGR ~10%). The PB meat market is segmented into soy, wheat, and pea - soy-based meat segment dominated the market in 2021, accounting for more than 46.2% of global revenue. (Market Digits, 2024)
The plant-based alternative protein market (plant-based, cultivated & fermentation-derived proteins) was valued at $10.3 billion in 2023 and predicted to reach $28 billion by 2025 (CAGR 8-12%) (Grand Views Research 2023). Breaking down this estimate by segment:
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The strictly plant-based protein segment - i.e. products made from soy, pea, wheat, and other plant sources - is the largest segment, valued at around $7 billion USD in 2023 and projected to grow up to $100-165 billion by 2050 (if 8-12% CAGR is maintained).
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The cultivated meat market was estimated to be worth just USD $200 million in 2024, but is expected to reach $2-3 billion USD by 2030 and $229 billion USD by 2050 (CAGR of 50%) (Roots Analysis 2024).
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The precision fermentation market, valued at $2.1 billion USD in 2023 and is projected to reach $57 billion USD by 2032, (CAGR of 44.3%) as new applications for fermentation technology emerge. Europe dominated the precision fermentation market in 2023 (market share of 49.5%) (Fortune Business Insights, 2024)
Alternative meat sales currently represent 1% of the world market for meat, but this could grow to 10% by 2030 (IPES 2024). While currently Europe holds the biggest market share, at 38.5% of global revenues in meat substitutes, the Asia-pacific market is projected to grow the fastest, at 11.18% per year to 2028.
The global plant-based milk market was valued at $16.5 billion USD in 2023 and projected to hit $35.4 billion by 2032 (CAGR 5.9%), driven largely by increasing lactose intolerance among consumers and growing demand for sustainable and healthier milk alternatives. (Business Research Insights, 2023). Milk- and dairy-alternatives per capita sales were almost double in the US compared to the EU (Vallone & Lambin, 2023)
The global plant-based cheese market was valued at ~$2.4 billion USD in 2023 and projected to reach $7.1 billion USD by 2032, (CAGR 12.6%) from 2023 to 2032 (Allied Market Research, 2024)
CONSUMPTION
Food calorie intake is expected to increase by 7% in middle-income countries, largely due to greater consumption of staples, livestock products and fats.
Meat Consumption
On average, the world’s population eats 43kg of meat per year: UK 82kg, US 118kg, Africa 6kg
By 2030, global consumption of meat proteins is projected to increase by 14%, with poultry representing 41% of all protein consumed, the highest among meat categories.
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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook (2021-2030)
By 2050, consumption of meat and dairy products is expected to rise 76% and 64% respectively https://openknowledge.fao.org/home
In the U.S., the average person consumes about 118 kg of meat per year, contributing 37% of their total daily calories from animal products, compared to 6 kg in low-income countries.
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FAO (2024)
CORPORATE CONCENTRATION
Four companies (Cargill, Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge & Louis Dreyfus) control 90% of the global grain trade (Putz, 2018)
Four companies (Chem China, Corteva, Bayer & BASF) control 66% of the world’s agricultural chemicals markets (Howard & Hendrickson, 2020)
Four companies control 53% (Chem China, Corteva, Bayer & LimaGrain) of the world’s global seed market and three companies (Deer, CNH & Kubota) sell almost half of the world’s farm machinery (Clapp & Purugganan, 2020)
Six firms control 72% of the animal pharmaceutical market (ETC Group, 2022)
Ten food and beverage processing firms make 34% of sales earned by the top 100 firms and top ten retailer companies control 11% of consumer spending (IPES, 2023)
Over 70% of the world’s farmland is owned or controlled by just 1% of its farmers (Anseeuw & Baldinelli, 2020)
Meat
Four companies control 99% of the global chicken-breeding market (Agropoly 2013 but up to date)
Four firms run 75% of the world’s corporate beef packing plants & abattoirs and another four firms control 70% of corporate pork slaughter Mooney et al., 2017
Investment
Only 30% of shares in the largest ag and food firms
are not owned by Blackrock, Vanguard, State
Street and Capital Group (Clapp, 2017)
SUBSIDIES
Subsidies are essentially government assistance that increases producers' income beyond what they would earn otherwise. Thus, they involve a transfer of wealth from taxpayers to private corporations.
Subsidies help keep the prices of meat, dairy, and poultry products relatively low, making them more affordable for consumers and, theoretically, ensure the economic viability of farmers, but their distribution tends to favour large agribusinesses, intensive farming operations (subsidies are often tied to production volume) and export-oriented producers.
Overall Support
In 2016–18, the governments of the 79 countries for which data are available (accounting for 83% of global production) supported agricultural production and food consumption with measures that generated net transfers of $638 billion per year (Gautam et al., 2022). The true global number likely exceeds US$1 trillion and 90% cause harm to natural areas (Damania et al., 2023).
Subsidies for products such as soybeans, palm oil, and beef cause farmers to push into the forest frontier and are responsible for 14% of forest loss every year. (World Bank, 2023)
Fisheries subsidies exceed $35 billion annually and are a key driver of dwindling fish stocks, oversized fishing fleets, and falling profitability (Sumaila et al., 2018)
Figure: Composition of 2018 fisheries subsidies amount by type and grouped by a) HDI low and HDI high; and b) developed and developing country groups, for 2018 (constant USD).
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“Beneficial” subsidies = investments in the promotion of fishery resource conservation and management
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“Capacity-enhancing” subsidies = programs that currently, or have the potential to, encourage fishing capacity to develop to a point where resource exploitation exceeds the maximum sustainable yield
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“Ambiguous” subsidies = potential to lead to either sustainable management or overexploitation
82% of EU’s agricultural subsidies (through CAP) support emission-intensive animal products (38% directly, 44% for animal feed) Kortleve et al. 2024
Current support for agriculture delivers low value for money as a way of helping farmers; for every dollar of public support, the return to farmers is just 35 cents (Gautam et al., 2022)
Through a combination of direct subsidies, tariffs and price controls, the world’s major agricultural producers are providing support worth up to US $42.5 billion annually for ingredients such as beef and pork, which are used to create ultra-processed foods (UPFs)
International Institute for Environment & Development (2023) & Ag Incentives
Plant- vs. Animal-Based Subsidies
Subsidies for plant-based alternatives are significantly lower compared to those for meat and dairy industries: in 2023, global public funding for alternative proteins amounted to approximately $523 million, with an all-time investment total of $1.67 billion (GFI, 2023).
In contrast, the US and EU provide around 1,000x more subsidies to meat and dairy industries than to plant-based alternatives. Between 2014 and 2020, the EU allocated about 1,200x more public funding to animal-sourced food products, and in the US, approximately 800x more public funding went to meat and dairy products compared to plant-based alternatives (Vallone et al., 2023).
Impact on Prices
The removal of subsidies could lead to a 10-50% increase in meat prices and a 20-50% increase in dairy prices (IIED, 2023)
If subsidies and the external costs of environmental damage were fully accounted for, the price of beef could potentially double, while the price of dairy could increase by 20-60% depending on the region and the specific environmental impacts considered. (Poore and Nemecek, 2024)
Distribution & Benefits
Current support for agriculture delivers low value for money as a way of helping farmers; for every dollar of public support, the return to farmers is just 35 cents.
Repurposing ~$70 billion of distorting subsidies a year (the equivalent of 1% of global ag output) would lead to net economic benefit of over $2 trillion USD in 20 years. (Gautam et al., 2020)
Farmers in the United States own only about 55% of subsidized farmland - non-farmer landlords own the remaining 45%. If the subsidy is fully passed on to the land owners through higher rental rates, almost 43% of all farm subsidies end up in the pockets of non-farmers.
In the EU the distribution of domestic support includes 40-60% to animal production (such as breeding, fattening), 10-30% for milk and 20-30% for vegetables, fruits & nuts (Flaig and Boysen-Urban, 2019)
Repurposing Subsidies
Repurposing current agricultural subsidies to support the production of healthier and more sustainable foods could significantly increase the consumption of fruits, vegetables, and other horticultural products. In OECD countries, fruit and vegetable consumption could increase by 55 g/d (10%) on average, and in non-OECD countries by 31 g/d (5%). These changes in consumption would lead to reductions in diet-related mortality that amounted to 444,000 fewer deaths in 2030. (Springmann and Freud, 2022)
BAILOUTS
Government bailouts for meat and dairy companies have been substantial, especially in recent years due to economic disruptions like trade wars and the COVID-19 pandemic.
U.S bailouts for animal agriculture more than doubled from $20 billion to over $50 billion in 2020, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic and trade wars. Specific examples include $1.2 billion for pig farmers and $3.5 billion for dairy producers. In stark contrast, plant-based milk producers and oat farmers received only $44 million (Essig, 2022)
2020 Farm Policy Encouraged Livestock Production | Source: Spence, 2021
In the U.S., the Trump administration significantly increased support for the agriculture sector, including meat and dairy, during the trade wars and the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020 alone, subsidies and bailouts for these industries more than doubled to over $50 billion, (Luiz, 2022)
The USDA has historically implemented various programs to support the dairy industry, including the purchase of surplus products and financial assistance to manage price volatility.
For example, during the trade war with China, the USDA provided up to $12 billion in financial aid to affected agricultural producers, with significant portions allocated to meat and dairy farmers (Nankin et al., 2009)
The top 10 meat and dairy companies and six largest trade associations, in the US alone, have spent over $330M just on lobbying related the environment since 2000 (Lazarus, McDermid, & Jacquet, 2021)
TRADE
Although only 17% of all food by weight is currently traded across borders, it accounts for nearly 80% of calories in certain regions. And the value of trade has grown 8x over the past five decades, during which production has tripled. Staple grains, mostly for animal feed, dominate this trade. (Laderchi et al., 2024)
Almost 20% of global calories consumed are provided by trade. (Manduna, 2024)
Globally, an estimated 37% of harvested major crops is used for domestic food crops - the remainder goes to exports, processing, industry or other uses. (Laderchi et al., 2024)
Source: FAO, 2022
International meat trade will expand in response to growing demand from countries in Asia and the Near East, where production will remain largely insufficient to meet demand. Import demand in several middle and high income Asian countries has been steadily increasing in recent years due to a shift toward diets that include higher quantities of animal products. International trade agreements have included specific provisions for meat products that improve market access and create trade opportunities. OECD-FAO (2021)
Exports
The Cairns Group (19 countries) together account for more than 27% of the world’s agricultural exports. (IATP)
Brazil, the U.S., and the EU dominate the global export of animal products, particularly beef, pork, and chicken, accounting for more than 60% of global meat trade. OECD-FAO (2021)
Imports
40% of the world's population depends on imported food, particularly in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, making these areas vulnerable to global trade disruptions and price volatility. (World Bank, 2023)
